Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 6239 at 10:43, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6239 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:43	IDA 13:07	29%	12%	1.8%	37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 24m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:32AS 587	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 12:32 → IDA 15:28AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	10h 28m	99%	77%
United Details →	ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217	2h 56m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 26m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → IDA 12:18DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	83%	73%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:35 → IDA 11:35AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 20:12 → IDA 23:09AS 3422 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	85%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 09:26 → SEA 11:38AS 583	54m Seattle	SEA 12:32 → IDA 15:28AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	55%	43%
American Details →	ORD 16:13 → DFW 18:46AA 2531	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	6h 58m	58%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON