Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3970 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 3970 ORD 08:30 → ILM 11:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 4437 ORD 20:33 → ILM 23:53 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3970 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:30	ILM 11:44	13%	4%	1.2%	93%
MQ 4020 Envoy	ORD 13:58	ILM 17:21	28%	8%	2.6%	no record
YX 4437 Republic	ORD 20:33	ILM 23:53	44%	17%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON