Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4547 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–47%.

Safest bet that day YX 4547 ORD 06:45 → IND 08:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2418 ORD 17:12 → IND 19:33 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4547 Republic	ORD 06:45	IND 08:59	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 3550 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:39	IND 10:53	11%	2%	1.1%	88%
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:28	IND 10:43	13%	3%	1.0%	91%
OO 5582 SkyWest	ORD 06:01	IND 08:11	14%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:43	IND 13:57	15%	4%	1.8%	87%
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:47	IND 15:03	17%	5%	2.0%	81%
UA 473 United	ORD 10:22	IND 12:31	21%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 625 American	ORD 10:04	IND 12:14	25%	7%	2.2%	no record
YX 3693 Republic	ORD 21:48	IND 00:08	33%	9%	5.2%	no record
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	IND 22:05	35%	13%	3.8%	76%worse than usual
YX 3499 Republic	ORD 16:02	IND 18:13	35%	14%	7.2%	no record
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:08	IND 20:27	36%	13%	3.9%	76%worse than usual
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:13	IND 16:22	37%	17%	3.6%	no record
AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:57	IND 23:11	38%	13%	5.6%	66%
AA 2418 American	ORD 17:12	IND 19:33	47%	20%	5.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON