Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2176 at 08:54 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–54%.

Safest bet that day UA 2176 ORD 08:54 → JAC 11:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1987 ORD 16:40 → JAC 18:59 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2176 United	ORD 08:54	JAC 11:10	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1898 American Flight history →	ORD 09:43	JAC 12:03	27%	8%	1.0%	78%
AA 2611 American	ORD 13:34	JAC 16:06	36%	14%	1.4%	no record
UA 1987 United	ORD 16:40	JAC 18:59	54%	22%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON