Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4459 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–59%.

Safest bet that day YX 4459 ORD 08:29 → JAX 12:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3173 ORD 19:09 → JAX 22:38 · 59% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4459 Republic	ORD 08:29	JAX 12:05	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:05	JAX 10:35	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1113 United	ORD 10:13	JAX 13:40	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:15	JAX 17:41	33%	10%	2.7%	80%worse than usual
UA 1284 United	ORD 15:58	JAX 19:27	44%	17%	2.1%	no record
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:39	JAX 22:09	48%	19%	2.8%	no record
AA 3173 American	ORD 19:09	JAX 22:38	59%	21%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON