Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 57–64%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3323 ORD 21:06 → LAS 23:06 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	11%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 2169 American	ORD 07:09	LAS 08:57	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2811 United	ORD 09:09	LAS 10:57	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1803 United	ORD 10:54	LAS 12:43	29%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1497 American	ORD 10:12	LAS 12:10	36%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 704 United	ORD 13:46	LAS 15:47	41%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:54	LAS 17:57	52%	18%	2.1%	75%worse than usual
AA 1475 American	ORD 13:51	LAS 15:46	54%	15%	1.8%	no record
UA 365 United	ORD 16:55	LAS 18:58	57%	20%	2.0%	no record
F9 2145 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:11	LAS 23:10	62%	20%	4.1%	63%worse than usual
UA 1703 United	ORD 18:19	LAS 20:09	62%	21%	1.1%	no record
UA 777 United Flight history →	ORD 20:06	LAS 21:56	64%	21%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	LAS 19:29	64%	23%	5.7%	58%worse than usual
AA 3323 American Flight history →	ORD 21:06	LAS 23:06	64%	19%	2.5%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON