Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2361 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 51–64%.

Safest bet that day UA 2361 ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3063 ORD 19:07 → LAX 21:26 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	16%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	17%	4%	0.9%	88%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	17%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:01	LAX 08:18	17%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1009 American	ORD 07:03	LAX 09:19	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	24%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 2170 United	ORD 10:27	LAX 12:39	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAX 11:21	28%	6%	0.9%	74%
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	28%	5%	0.8%	70%
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	31%	10%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:13	LAX 14:36	33%	9%	1.2%	79%worse than usual
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:56	LAX 16:19	36%	12%	1.3%	no record
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	37%	12%	1.4%	68%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	39%	16%	1.9%	80%worse than usual
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	42%	18%	2.0%	76%worse than usual
UA 542 United	ORD 15:23	LAX 17:50	43%	18%	2.0%	no record
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	47%	17%	3.6%	59%
UA 2494 United	ORD 17:00	LAX 19:30	51%	20%	1.8%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	53%	21%	1.1%	69%worse than usual
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 19:07	LAX 21:26	55%	20%	0.9%	no record
AA 1114 American	ORD 21:18	LAX 23:49	55%	16%	1.5%	no record
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	55%	21%	1.4%	58%worse than usual
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	61%	20%	1.5%	59%worse than usual
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:07	LAX 21:26	64%	21%	1.6%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON