Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2617 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–59%.

Safest bet that day UA 2617 ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2458 ORD 17:57 → LGA 21:08 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2617 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:11	7%	3%	1.3%	89%
UA 2092 United Flight history →	ORD 07:59	LGA 11:16	10%	5%	1.5%	86%
UA 1657 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	10%	4%	1.5%	82%
AA 1264 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:14	10%	3%	1.7%	62%
AA 2723 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:16	12%	4%	2.0%	79%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LGA 11:12	15%	4%	2.0%	77%
DL 2251 Delta	ORD 09:32	LGA 12:42	15%	5%	2.3%	no record
AA 2941 American	ORD 08:22	LGA 11:48	16%	5%	1.8%	no record
UA 1258 United Flight history →	ORD 08:56	LGA 12:08	20%	7%	1.5%	76%
UA 669 United Flight history →	ORD 10:03	LGA 13:26	20%	10%	2.1%	82%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LGA 13:48	21%	8%	2.7%	72%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:30	LGA 15:00	23%	9%	3.1%	78%
UA 529 United	ORD 10:58	LGA 14:09	25%	13%	2.0%	no record
AA 3128 American Flight history →	ORD 10:12	LGA 13:26	25%	8%	3.0%	71%
UA 786 United	ORD 11:57	LGA 15:08	28%	12%	2.0%	no record
AA 903 American	ORD 11:30	LGA 14:44	30%	11%	2.9%	no record
UA 2189 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LGA 16:22	34%	17%	2.0%	65%
AA 3163 American Flight history →	ORD 12:50	LGA 16:17	34%	12%	3.6%	68%
AA 512 American	ORD 13:49	LGA 17:03	37%	15%	3.4%	no record
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	39%	20%	4.0%	65%
DL 1631 Delta	ORD 14:31	LGA 17:40	41%	18%	4.5%	no record
UA 2133 United	ORD 15:23	LGA 18:43	44%	20%	3.7%	no record
AA 866 American	ORD 15:11	LGA 18:25	45%	19%	5.2%	no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	ORD 20:10	LGA 23:44	47%	19%	2.9%	58%
AA 1166 American Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LGA 23:45	48%	17%	3.5%	52%
UA 511 United	ORD 16:20	LGA 19:42	49%	24%	3.2%	no record
UA 2827 United	ORD 20:09	LGA 23:28	50%	20%	2.1%	no record
UA 2605 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	LGA 21:54	51%	22%	1.9%	54%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:05	LGA 22:34	51%	20%	2.0%	64%worse than usual
UA 456 United	ORD 17:20	LGA 20:42	52%	22%	2.9%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:40	LGA 20:49	53%	19%	3.3%	57%
AA 673 American Flight history →	ORD 16:49	LGA 20:03	55%	24%	6.2%	47%
AA 774 American Flight history →	ORD 18:11	LGA 21:24	57%	21%	2.9%	58%worse than usual
UA 2458 United Flight history →	ORD 17:57	LGA 21:08	59%	23%	3.0%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON