Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3503 at 09:38 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–42%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3503 ORD 09:38 → LIT 11:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3561 ORD 19:59 → LIT 21:59 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3503 Envoy	ORD 09:38	LIT 11:32	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3501 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:17	LIT 19:19	40%	14%	4.0%	81%worse than usual
AA 3561 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:59	LIT 21:59	42%	15%	1.7%	72%worse than usual
UA 4512 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	LIT 10:38	23%	10%	0.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON