Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3575 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–57%.

Safest bet that day YX 3575 ORD 08:45 → MCI 10:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1884 ORD 20:27 → MCI 22:02 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3575 Republic	ORD 08:45	MCI 10:27	12%	3%	2.5%	no record
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:53	MCI 08:27	15%	6%	3.5%	95%
OO 5717 SkyWest	ORD 07:19	MCI 08:55	16%	5%	3.3%	no record
MQ 3545 Envoy	ORD 11:59	MCI 13:34	19%	7%	4.2%	no record
MQ 3764 Envoy	ORD 13:55	MCI 15:38	21%	9%	4.9%	no record
AA 6215 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:56	MCI 11:31	22%	8%	3.3%	57%
UA 5997 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:34	MCI 12:11	23%	8%	3.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	24%	12%	3.9%	80%
OO 5644 SkyWest	ORD 14:37	MCI 16:24	34%	18%	5.4%	no record
YX 4384 Republic	ORD 22:48	MCI 00:17	40%	12%	2.7%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	42%	19%	2.6%	68%
OO 5712 SkyWest	ORD 17:56	MCI 19:33	53%	20%	6.1%	no record
OO 6304 SkyWest	ORD 17:05	MCI 18:40	53%	20%	6.2%	no record
UA 1884 United Flight history →	ORD 20:27	MCI 22:02	57%	26%	1.5%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON