Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2280 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–60%.

Safest bet that day UA 2280 ORD 07:20 → MCO 11:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3176 ORD 18:59 → MCO 22:54 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	9%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:01	MCO 10:45	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	16%	6%	0.8%	85%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	26%	11%	1.9%	75%
AA 3293 American	ORD 10:38	MCO 14:22	27%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 2620 United	ORD 12:51	MCO 16:34	35%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 11:55	MCO 15:40	35%	12%	2.5%	46%
F9 9417 Frontier	ORD 14:41	MCO 18:35	40%	20%	5.0%	no record
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:24	MCO 18:07	41%	18%	2.0%	no record
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:58	MCO 19:46	46%	21%	3.1%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	46%	22%	5.2%	73%worse than usual
UA 617 United	ORD 20:21	MCO 00:09	50%	19%	1.5%	no record
UA 2294 United	ORD 18:12	MCO 21:55	54%	21%	1.3%	no record
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 16:14	MCO 20:10	58%	23%	6.5%	62%worse than usual
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:59	MCO 22:54	60%	24%	2.9%	53%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON