Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5581 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 53–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 5581 ORD 06:52 → MDT 09:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 2400 ORD 19:10 → MDT 22:26 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:52	MDT 09:44	10%	3%	1.1%	77%
MQ 4212 Envoy	ORD 08:21	MDT 11:14	16%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 3544 Republic	ORD 10:25	MDT 13:23	17%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 533 United	ORD 14:11	MDT 17:10	41%	15%	3.9%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	ORD 15:59	MDT 19:04	45%	15%	5.4%	75%worse than usual
UA 1719 United	ORD 21:55	MDT 00:44	53%	14%	1.5%	no record
AA 2400 American	ORD 19:10	MDT 22:26	55%	20%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON