Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5593 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 5593 ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 2317 ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5593 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MEM 11:05	15%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 3959 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:08	MEM 09:56	16%	3%	1.2%	95%worse than usual
UA 5414 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MEM 14:42	22%	10%	1.2%	72%
YX 4594 Republic	ORD 16:03	MEM 17:58	33%	14%	7.0%	no record
AA 3945 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	MEM 00:18	36%	9%	6.0%	71%
OO 6042 SkyWest	ORD 16:09	MEM 18:01	43%	19%	6.4%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MEM 23:21	44%	15%	1.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON