Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5838 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–55%.

Safest bet that day OO 5838 ORD 06:06 → MKE 06:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6257 ORD 20:55 → MKE 21:44 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5838 SkyWest	ORD 06:06	MKE 06:56	15%	5%	2.2%	no record
OO 4984 SkyWest	ORD 07:08	MKE 07:58	17%	6%	2.3%	no record
MQ 4018 Envoy	ORD 10:11	MKE 11:00	21%	4%	1.7%	no record
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:29	MKE 11:19	26%	8%	2.7%	77%
OO 4990 SkyWest	ORD 11:41	MKE 12:30	31%	11%	3.7%	no record
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:36	32%	13%	4.1%	67%
MQ 4035 Envoy	ORD 13:25	MKE 14:08	34%	7%	2.6%	no record
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:31	MKE 15:31	41%	17%	6.9%	66%
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:33	MKE 23:21	43%	13%	4.8%	52%
OO 757 SkyWest	ORD 22:03	MKE 22:52	47%	15%	4.7%	no record
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MKE 20:56	51%	17%	4.3%	70%worse than usual
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:55	MKE 18:00	52%	19%	10.1%	76%worse than usual
OO 4909 SkyWest	ORD 19:16	MKE 20:22	52%	17%	4.7%	no record
MQ 4096 Envoy	ORD 17:23	MKE 18:12	53%	12%	7.8%	no record
UA 3769 United	ORD 16:25	MKE 17:18	53%	20%	5.6%	no record
AA 6257 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:55	MKE 21:44	55%	18%	6.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON