Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4048 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 4048 ORD 07:07 → MSN 08:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 630 ORD 19:46 → MSN 20:46 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4048 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:07	MSN 08:07	9%	3%	1.3%	85%
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:40	MSN 12:46	22%	11%	2.5%	74%
OO 4737 SkyWest	ORD 10:33	MSN 11:33	23%	11%	2.0%	no record
UA 2349 United	ORD 12:37	MSN 13:36	25%	13%	1.4%	no record
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:02	MSN 15:14	26%	10%	4.4%	82%
UA 1595 United	ORD 14:20	MSN 15:21	33%	19%	3.4%	no record
AA 4045 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:57	MSN 23:56	36%	11%	5.0%	69%
AA 3953 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:22	MSN 18:43	36%	13%	6.3%	73%
MQ 4217 Envoy	ORD 21:09	MSN 22:29	37%	13%	5.7%	no record
OO 5530 SkyWest	ORD 15:56	MSN 16:56	38%	21%	5.1%	no record
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:10	MSN 19:10	46%	23%	4.2%	no record
UA 1251 United	ORD 21:50	MSN 22:53	48%	23%	1.9%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 19:46	MSN 20:46	50%	28%	2.2%	62%worse than usual
UA 4194 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:01	MSN 17:10	29%	10%	7.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON