tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2847 United ORD 08:47 MSO 11:26 15% 6% 0.8% no record
MQ 3697 Envoy ORD 09:54 MSO 12:31 15% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 42m Denver DEN 11:24 → MSO 13:36UA 2357 8h 36m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:32AS 587 3h 37m Seattle SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:35AS 660 9h 35m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 2h 08m Seattle SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon 8h 12m 88% 65%
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:12 → MSP 19:55DL 1306 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610 6h 32m 88% 60%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 10h 28m 100% 58%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092 8h 07m 85% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 1h 14m Seattle SEA 19:36 → MSO 22:02AS 604 7h 19m 66% 43%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 1h 18m Denver DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092 6h 28m 55% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON