Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2232 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 2232 ORD 07:00 → MSP 08:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2865 ORD 18:23 → MSP 19:52 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2232 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MSP 08:41	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 2028 Delta	ORD 06:19	MSP 07:47	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:15	MSP 10:01	12%	3%	1.0%	91%
UA 2805 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	MSP 10:36	14%	6%	0.7%	89%
MQ 3551 Envoy	ORD 09:43	MSP 11:15	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 724 Delta	ORD 08:32	MSP 10:00	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	ORD 12:27	MSP 14:10	23%	7%	1.1%	67%
UA 215 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	MSP 12:00	24%	7%	0.8%	79%
UA 467 United Flight history →	ORD 12:59	MSP 14:41	29%	12%	0.8%	70%
MQ 4228 Envoy	ORD 15:16	MSP 17:11	30%	14%	4.8%	no record
AA 2448 American	ORD 12:56	MSP 14:35	34%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 2298 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MSP 16:13	36%	18%	2.4%	74%worse than usual
DL 2130 Delta Flight history →	ORD 20:21	MSP 22:12	44%	23%	1.8%	59%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:12	MSP 19:55	45%	21%	1.6%	51%
UA 1935 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	MSP 18:17	45%	23%	2.0%	70%worse than usual
AA 1048 American	ORD 22:45	MSP 00:41	46%	19%	1.5%	no record
AA 2472 American	ORD 16:05	MSP 18:03	47%	23%	3.9%	no record
UA 2005 United Flight history →	ORD 19:57	MSP 21:41	52%	22%	1.0%	58%worse than usual
UA 2865 United Flight history →	ORD 18:23	MSP 19:52	58%	23%	1.0%	54%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON