Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2778 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 50–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:00 → MSY 09:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1761 ORD 20:11 → MSY 22:46 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:00	MSY 09:25	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:41	MSY 11:05	18%	3%	1.3%	86%
UA 1532 United	ORD 10:41	MSY 13:07	23%	8%	1.2%	no record
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:27	MSY 17:05	39%	17%	4.4%	no record
AA 3256 American	ORD 21:25	MSY 23:58	50%	19%	2.6%	no record
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	52%	23%	1.6%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON