Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 623 at 11:53, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 623 United	ORD 11:53	MYR 15:03	24%	12%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	6h 29m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 30m	99%	84%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	2h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	7h 02m	97%	80%
American Details →	ORD 08:59 → CLT 11:56AA 2080	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 14:40 → MYR 15:53AA 1687	5h 54m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:39 → ATL 18:52DL 1477	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	7h 16m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 47m	98%	67%
United Details →	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	1h 38m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	91%	65%
American Details →	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	1h 25m Philadelphia	PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	5h 47m	82%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON