Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	3h 07m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	9h 29m	97%	85%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56AS 706	9h 13m	91%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	7h 11m	40%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON