Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4037 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–50%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4037 ORD 09:40 → OKC 12:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1440 ORD 20:35 → OKC 22:47 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4037 Envoy	ORD 09:40	OKC 12:02	14%	4%	2.0%	no record
OO 414 SkyWest	ORD 09:15	OKC 11:33	20%	8%	1.6%	no record
OO 435 SkyWest	ORD 13:32	OKC 15:51	31%	14%	2.0%	no record
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:17	OKC 14:34	31%	13%	2.0%	64%
OO 5363 SkyWest	ORD 16:04	OKC 18:26	42%	23%	8.8%	no record
AA 6481 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:13	OKC 18:29	46%	25%	8.8%	62%
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:02	OKC 20:18	49%	25%	5.3%	60%
UA 1440 United	ORD 20:35	OKC 22:47	50%	27%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON