Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4042 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–54%.

Safest bet that day AA 4042 ORD 07:57 → OMA 09:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 3334 ORD 22:50 → OMA 00:32 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:57	OMA 09:42	8%	3%	1.2%	74%
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	14%	6%	0.7%	87%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 10:02	OMA 11:38	15%	5%	2.0%	no record
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 10:28	OMA 12:06	19%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	28%	12%	1.0%	78%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	39%	20%	2.2%	72%worse than usual
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 18:10	OMA 19:55	43%	22%	5.0%	no record
MQ 3712 Envoy	ORD 18:35	OMA 20:01	49%	18%	5.9%	no record
UA 2336 United	ORD 21:40	OMA 23:18	52%	23%	1.9%	no record
AA 3334 American Flight history →	ORD 22:50	OMA 00:32	54%	16%	2.9%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON