tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 53% 22% 1.5% 60%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 47m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 31m 86% 76%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 08m 90% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 53m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 8h 02m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956 8h 52m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:35 → SFO 15:07UA 1097 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 18:53 → ONT 20:30UA 2478 9h 55m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 28m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 1h 31m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 6h 41m 88% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:50 → PHX 15:43AA 1640 1h 11m Phoenix PHX 16:54 → ONT 18:20AA 1666 6h 30m 63% 38%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:13 → DFW 18:46AA 2531 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12AA 2147 6h 59m 53% 27%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 1h 07m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 6h 30m 49% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON