Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4448 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–41%.

Safest bet that day YX 4448 ORD 08:11 → ORF 11:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3607 ORD 17:55 → ORF 21:20 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4448 Republic	ORD 08:11	ORF 11:38	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 3664 Republic	ORD 08:43	ORF 12:10	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 12:05	ORF 15:19	25%	10%	1.3%	83%
YX 4519 Republic	ORD 20:41	ORF 00:07	37%	12%	2.9%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:07	ORF 18:31	38%	11%	5.6%	87%worse than usual
YX 3607 Republic	ORD 17:55	ORF 21:20	41%	12%	4.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON