Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2970 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 51–61%.

Safest bet that day AA 2970 ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1848 ORD 19:03 → PHL 22:08 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2970 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHL 08:05	5%	3%	1.1%	90%
UA 2856 United	ORD 06:57	PHL 10:09	7%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 471 American Flight history →	ORD 06:26	PHL 09:43	10%	3%	1.1%	80%
UA 729 United Flight history →	ORD 09:04	PHL 12:16	12%	6%	0.8%	92%
AA 1725 American	ORD 08:46	PHL 12:04	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 2112 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:37	PHL 10:56	21%	7%	1.7%	62%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	ORD 11:33	PHL 14:47	24%	10%	1.0%	79%
AA 1743 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	PHL 14:54	27%	10%	2.2%	74%
AA 830 American	ORD 13:25	PHL 16:52	36%	15%	2.4%	no record
UA 2430 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	PHL 17:52	40%	17%	3.1%	69%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	PHL 18:33	46%	18%	4.1%	71%worse than usual
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	PHL 19:38	51%	22%	4.2%	69%worse than usual
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	52%	20%	2.1%	61%worse than usual
AA 1393 American	ORD 16:02	PHL 19:16	53%	24%	5.7%	no record
AA 532 American Flight history →	ORD 19:39	PHL 23:04	54%	21%	2.3%	62%worse than usual
AA 597 American	ORD 17:52	PHL 21:06	56%	21%	3.6%	no record
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 19:03	PHL 22:08	61%	24%	2.4%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON