Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2989 at 04:55 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 50–59%.

Safest bet that day AA 2989 ORD 04:55 → PHX 06:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2554 ORD 19:21 → PHX 21:17 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2989 American	ORD 04:55	PHX 06:47	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 2795 United	ORD 06:57	PHX 08:43	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 09:02	PHX 11:03	22%	7%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 07:25	PHX 09:09	22%	6%	1.2%	86%
AA 2192 American	ORD 10:36	PHX 12:28	31%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 2164 United Flight history →	ORD 12:13	PHX 13:55	33%	11%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 1640 American Flight history →	ORD 13:50	PHX 15:43	37%	13%	1.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 1706 United	ORD 14:12	PHX 16:00	39%	18%	1.9%	no record
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	47%	17%	3.7%	70%worse than usual
AA 3137 American Flight history →	ORD 17:13	PHX 19:15	50%	19%	4.4%	63%worse than usual
UA 2015 United	ORD 16:03	PHX 17:51	50%	23%	1.9%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PHX 22:27	53%	24%	1.3%	70%worse than usual
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 17:20	PHX 19:08	54%	23%	2.0%	79%worse than usual
AA 3277 American	ORD 20:59	PHX 22:54	56%	21%	2.6%	no record
AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	PHX 00:14	57%	15%	2.3%	55%worse than usual
AA 1767 American	ORD 18:11	PHX 19:56	58%	20%	2.6%	no record
AA 2554 American Flight history →	ORD 19:21	PHX 21:17	59%	20%	2.1%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON