Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3656 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–56%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 05:59 → PIT 08:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1051 ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:31 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 05:59	PIT 08:39	4%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:12	PIT 10:52	8%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	8%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 4467 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:42	PIT 12:22	9%	2%	1.1%	82%
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:40	PIT 15:23	14%	5%	2.0%	89%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:25	PIT 12:59	19%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2675 American	ORD 12:34	PIT 15:10	26%	11%	2.0%	no record
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	31%	10%	2.4%	80%worse than usual
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	32%	18%	3.7%	72%
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:42	PIT 23:22	33%	12%	2.9%	73%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	47%	24%	1.1%	64%worse than usual
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:12	PIT 18:45	47%	23%	8.0%	no record
AA 2671 American	ORD 17:25	PIT 20:01	52%	25%	4.3%	no record
AA 1051 American	ORD 18:55	PIT 21:31	56%	26%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON