tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2492 at 10:42, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2492 United ORD 10:42 PNS 13:05 20% 9% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 21m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640 6h 06m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 3h 44m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 5h 28m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:30 → PNS 15:30UA 8118 8h 31m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 5h 43m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → PNS 10:12AA 2476 5h 05m 95% 75%
FrontierDetails → ORD 06:24 → DEN 08:05F9 1483 2h 20m Denver DEN 10:25 → PNS 14:38F9 3930 8h 14m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:39 → ATL 18:52DL 1477 57m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 4h 25m 62% 46%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00AA 2769 59m Washington DCA 18:59 → PNS 20:40AA 5544 · flown by PSA 5h 45m 58% 34%
AmericanDetails → ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 58m Charlotte CLT 22:57 → PNS 23:46AA 3131 4h 59m 46% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON