Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1807 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42%.

Safest bet that day UA 1807 ORD 06:55 → PVD 10:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5691 ORD 18:12 → PVD 21:33 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1807 United	ORD 06:55	PVD 10:15	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4798 Republic	ORD 09:23	PVD 12:50	7%	2%	1.3%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	ORD 13:17	PVD 16:44	15%	7%	3.1%	no record
OO 5676 SkyWest	ORD 11:02	PVD 14:23	20%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 1293 American Flight history →	ORD 19:14	PVD 22:43	42%	17%	2.4%	63%
OO 5691 SkyWest	ORD 18:12	PVD 21:33	42%	17%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON