Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5232 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–49%.

Safest bet that day OO 5232 ORD 07:01 → PWM 10:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1401 ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 07:01	PWM 10:24	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	PWM 14:30	23%	6%	1.0%	86%
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:05	PWM 16:34	26%	7%	1.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 2717 American	ORD 09:29	PWM 12:56	26%	6%	1.2%	no record
YX 3662 Republic	ORD 15:27	PWM 19:09	31%	12%	4.3%	no record
AA 4504 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:56	PWM 23:26	40%	14%	2.9%	69%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	ORD 18:08	PWM 21:41	49%	23%	1.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON