Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4354 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–64%.

Safest bet that day AA 4354 ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 600 ORD 20:53 → RDU 23:56 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:18	RDU 11:38	8%	3%	1.0%	90%
YX 3600 Republic	ORD 09:05	RDU 12:18	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
OO 5764 SkyWest	ORD 07:27	RDU 10:36	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	16%	7%	1.0%	84%
AA 2732 American	ORD 10:56	RDU 14:01	24%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 1142 United	ORD 12:47	RDU 15:53	27%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:05	RDU 19:17	39%	18%	8.1%	65%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 23:00	RDU 01:55	42%	16%	1.2%	53%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 15:58	RDU 19:05	44%	19%	2.8%	79%worse than usual
AA 2949 American Flight history →	ORD 14:50	RDU 18:03	45%	16%	5.1%	74%worse than usual
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 18:50	RDU 22:09	57%	26%	3.3%	58%worse than usual
AA 600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:53	RDU 23:56	64%	25%	4.0%	50%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON