Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1993 United	ORD 11:08	RNO 13:34	34%	12%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	2h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	8h 56m	100%	82%
United Details →	ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361	3h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 13:04 → RNO 14:35UA 1544	9h 35m	100%	79%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 38m Denver	DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167	8h 39m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 24m	90%	75%
United Details →	ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363	3h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 18:55 → RNO 20:39UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest	9h 39m	93%	74%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911	7h 11m	96%	71%
United Details →	ORD 12:35 → SFO 15:07UA 1097	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 18:53 → RNO 20:09UA 581	9h 34m	97%	69%
United Details →	ORD 06:01 → LAX 08:18UA 2373	59m Los Angeles	LAX 09:17 → RNO 10:56UA 5410 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	83%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 15:39 → ATL 18:52DL 1477	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → RNO 21:42DL 391	8h 03m	68%	46%
American Details →	ORD 13:50 → PHX 15:43AA 1640	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → RNO 19:07AA 2869	7h 17m	63%	40%
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	1h 12m Denver	DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50UA 719	6h 38m	51%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON