Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4104 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–57%.

Safest bet that day AA 4104 ORD 08:08 → ROC 10:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 8168 ORD 18:12 → ROC 20:54 · 57% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:08	ROC 10:52	11%	3%	0.9%	81%
UA 5919 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:58	ROC 09:44	13%	6%	1.3%	83%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ROC 16:45	31%	13%	1.0%	71%
YX 4572 Republic	ORD 22:02	ROC 00:50	31%	8%	2.6%	no record
OO 6316 SkyWest	ORD 18:56	ROC 21:38	53%	20%	5.2%	no record
UA 8168 United	ORD 18:12	ROC 20:54	57%	21%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON