Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2428 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 2428 ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2994 ORD 20:53 → SAN 23:31 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2428 United Flight history →	ORD 07:01	SAN 09:29	12%	4%	0.7%	95%
AS 1470 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:20	SAN 08:54	16%	3%	1.2%	75%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	ORD 06:40	SAN 08:56	19%	5%	0.8%	84%
UA 660 United Flight history →	ORD 08:46	SAN 11:21	20%	6%	0.7%	84%
UA 559 United	ORD 13:46	SAN 16:08	35%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 3134 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	SAN 12:45	35%	9%	1.0%	68%
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:20	SAN 16:59	39%	13%	4.0%	70%
UA 2138 United	ORD 16:30	SAN 18:59	46%	21%	2.2%	no record
AA 1543 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	SAN 17:25	48%	17%	2.0%	68%worse than usual
UA 1564 United	ORD 20:13	SAN 22:35	52%	23%	2.2%	no record
AA 1861 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	SAN 21:49	54%	22%	1.8%	70%worse than usual
AS 1478 Alaska	ORD 19:49	SAN 22:02	57%	16%	2.3%	no record
AA 2994 American	ORD 20:53	SAN 23:31	58%	22%	2.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SAN 09:02UA 2309	6h 02m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON