Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 490 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 55–56%.

Safest bet that day UA 490 ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 431 ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 490 United Flight history →	ORD 09:25	SAT 12:29	18%	7%	0.7%	86%
AA 2845 American	ORD 11:15	SAT 14:16	27%	9%	1.4%	no record
UA 1252 United	ORD 13:46	SAT 16:50	32%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:13	SAT 18:13	34%	13%	5.0%	80%worse than usual
UA 1394 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SAT 22:57	55%	25%	1.3%	57%worse than usual
AA 431 American Flight history →	ORD 21:19	SAT 00:10	56%	18%	2.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON