tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 08:45 SBA 11:25 22% 7% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 44m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 9h 02m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SBA 14:04UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:03 → SBA 11:33AA 1822 8h 33m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 42m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 9h 19m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 9h 47m 99% 61%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624 3h 42m Phoenix PHX 20:47 → SBA 22:35AA 1855 9h 13m 93% 55%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 8h 26m 85% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 55m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:52AA 2928 6h 27m 73% 57%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 6h 47m 49% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON