Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3582 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–43%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3582 ORD 07:15 → SDF 09:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4603 ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3582 Envoy	ORD 07:15	SDF 09:38	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1182 United	ORD 06:52	SDF 09:10	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 11:11	SDF 13:34	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
OO 5692 SkyWest	ORD 10:41	SDF 13:04	23%	10%	1.8%	no record
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:53	SDF 19:32	39%	16%	6.6%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	ORD 14:58	SDF 17:21	41%	19%	4.9%	no record
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	41%	15%	4.5%	77%worse than usual
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	41%	14%	2.8%	73%worse than usual
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:29	SDF 22:04	43%	17%	2.8%	75%worse than usual
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON