Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2041 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–62%.

Safest bet that day DL 2041 ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 579 ORD 19:16 → SEA 21:42 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	15%	4%	0.9%	74%
UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	SEA 09:40	16%	4%	0.7%	89%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:00	SEA 08:32	20%	3%	1.0%	64%
UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	22%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 07:17	SEA 09:50	26%	5%	1.0%	44%
AA 2966 American	ORD 10:01	SEA 12:32	32%	7%	1.2%	no record
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	34%	8%	1.2%	65%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	37%	11%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AA 1476 American	ORD 12:04	SEA 14:33	37%	10%	1.5%	no record
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 09:26	SEA 11:38	41%	5%	1.2%	41%
AA 3231 American	ORD 21:34	SEA 00:23	48%	14%	1.9%	no record
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	49%	13%	4.7%	68%worse than usual
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	51%	18%	2.5%	73%worse than usual
AA 2392 American	ORD 18:50	SEA 21:48	54%	19%	2.1%	no record
DL 1205 Delta	ORD 17:48	SEA 20:15	54%	15%	2.4%	no record
AS 337 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 17:42	SEA 20:21	59%	15%	4.0%	49%
UA 2211 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	SEA 22:28	60%	19%	1.8%	59%worse than usual
AS 579 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 19:16	SEA 21:42	62%	17%	1.7%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON