Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 51–61%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2856 ORD 19:10 → SFO 22:10 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	15%	4%	0.8%	93%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	18%	7%	0.7%	87%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:45	SFO 09:27	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 342 United	ORD 08:38	SFO 11:11	28%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 1851 American	ORD 09:45	SFO 12:28	29%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	30%	13%	0.8%	63%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:35	SFO 11:16	30%	10%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 2817 American	ORD 13:37	SFO 16:34	40%	19%	1.5%	no record
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:35	SFO 15:07	40%	18%	1.0%	79%worse than usual
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	43%	22%	2.6%	74%worse than usual
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	45%	23%	2.1%	66%worse than usual
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	48%	20%	3.6%	70%worse than usual
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	51%	19%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:02	SFO 18:33	52%	24%	2.0%	no record
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:22	SFO 20:05	56%	25%	3.6%	57%worse than usual
AA 3202 American	ORD 21:37	SFO 00:19	57%	20%	1.7%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	58%	23%	1.2%	48%
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	59%	23%	1.3%	45%
UA 649 United	ORD 18:22	SFO 20:55	59%	24%	1.2%	no record
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:10	SFO 22:10	61%	25%	1.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	94%	69%
United Details →	ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217	54m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 26m	90%	64%
Delta Details →	ORD 12:27 → MSP 14:10DL 1567	57m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	6h 45m	77%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON