Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 9875 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–48%.

Safest bet that day MQ 9875 ORD 07:56 → SGF 09:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4739 ORD 16:02 → SGF 17:42 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 9875 Envoy	ORD 07:56	SGF 09:41	12%	3%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3584 Envoy	ORD 08:32	SGF 10:25	14%	4%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	ORD 13:41	SGF 15:24	22%	9%	2.6%	no record
OO 5525 SkyWest	ORD 08:53	SGF 10:32	22%	8%	1.6%	no record
OO 5664 SkyWest	ORD 13:08	SGF 14:52	27%	14%	2.1%	no record
MQ 3596 Envoy	ORD 21:02	SGF 22:49	35%	13%	5.0%	no record
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:29	SGF 19:17	39%	18%	6.0%	72%worse than usual
OO 4747 SkyWest	ORD 21:27	SGF 23:08	46%	18%	4.5%	no record
OO 4739 SkyWest	ORD 16:02	SGF 17:42	48%	26%	6.9%	no record
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	SGF 23:27	13%	7%	11.5%	87%
UA 4529 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:50	SGF 10:44	26%	14%	0.7%	74%
UA 4436 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:32	28%	13%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON