tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 307 at 09:11 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 56%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 307 United ORD 09:11 SJC 11:44 19% 5% 0.9% no record
UA 481 United Flight history → ORD 19:58 SJC 22:43 56% 21% 1.1% 67%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 39m Denver DEN 11:21 → SJC 13:08UA 1256 9h 08m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 00m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:09 → SJC 11:06AA 2046 8h 06m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254 7h 00m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 32m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564 2h 06m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 9h 14m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → SJC 13:52AA 2834 9h 48m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 53m Portland PDX 17:40 → SJC 19:32AS 2113 · flown by Horizon 7h 20m 55% 44%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:13 → DFW 18:46AA 2531 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:14 → SJC 22:10AA 364 7h 57m 61% 31%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 1h 17m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 6h 57m 55% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON