Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2231 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 58–62%.

Safest bet that day DL 2231 ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2545 ORD 19:27 → SLC 22:02 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	14%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 08:55	SLC 11:39	21%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 3129 American	ORD 08:18	SLC 10:56	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	ORD 10:21	SLC 12:52	30%	7%	1.4%	70%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	32%	12%	1.1%	77%
AA 1873 American	ORD 13:05	SLC 15:38	37%	11%	1.8%	no record
DL 1446 Delta	ORD 14:08	SLC 16:31	44%	14%	2.0%	no record
UA 1710 United Flight history →	ORD 21:31	SLC 23:50	58%	18%	1.3%	58%worse than usual
DL 1448 Delta	ORD 19:44	SLC 22:08	59%	22%	1.4%	no record
AA 2545 American Flight history →	ORD 19:27	SLC 22:02	62%	24%	3.1%	50%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON