Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1304 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–51%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1179 ORD 17:49 → SNA 20:22 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	19%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 1920 American	ORD 08:16	SNA 10:45	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1916 American	ORD 12:02	SNA 14:32	34%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	46%	12%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:58	47%	18%	2.1%	70%worse than usual
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 17:49	SNA 20:22	51%	13%	3.5%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	94%	84%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:27 → SNA 09:43AA 2114	6h 43m	90%	71%
Frontier Details →	ORD 06:24 → DEN 08:05F9 1483	55m Denver	DEN 09:00 → SNA 10:28F9 4371	6h 04m	76%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON