Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3680 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3680 Republic	ORD 07:00	SRQ 10:55	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2287 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	SRQ 15:12	26%	9%	1.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 14m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109	6h 28m	99%	75%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452	5h 03m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:39 → ATL 18:52DL 1477	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	6h 13m	93%	68%
American Details →	ORD 13:22 → CLT 16:18AA 1409	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604	6h 40m	91%	59%
American Details →	ORD 16:43 → MIA 21:07AA 2323	1h 47m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	78%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON