Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2818 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–53%.

Safest bet that day AA 2818 ORD 08:52 → STL 10:16 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2444 ORD 19:23 → STL 20:47 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2818 American	ORD 08:52	STL 10:16	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 5300 SkyWest	ORD 10:43	STL 12:05	23%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:44	STL 13:05	27%	9%	1.9%	67%
OO 5696 SkyWest	ORD 13:08	STL 14:39	28%	10%	1.7%	no record
YX 4645 Republic	ORD 15:07	STL 16:35	32%	14%	4.1%	no record
UA 2000 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	STL 15:46	34%	15%	2.4%	68%
AA 3069 American Flight history →	ORD 23:13	STL 00:44	38%	13%	3.0%	62%
UA 8125 United	ORD 19:52	STL 21:11	53%	23%	1.2%	no record
AA 2444 American	ORD 19:23	STL 20:47	53%	23%	2.7%	no record
UA 4581 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:55	STL 14:23	20%	6%	4.2%	80%
UA 4613 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 09:00	STL 10:34	25%	13%	1.7%	75%
UA 4576 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	STL 23:29	30%	17%	6.5%	70%
UA 4518 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:45	STL 18:13	33%	18%	3.5%	67%
UA 4416 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:59	STL 17:27	37%	19%	3.9%	63%
UA 4412 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	STL 19:23	44%	22%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON