Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5937 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–46%.

Safest bet that day OO 5937 ORD 07:48 → SYR 10:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2481 ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5937 SkyWest	ORD 07:48	SYR 10:44	14%	7%	1.2%	no record
YX 4648 Republic	ORD 09:44	SYR 12:30	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	ORD 13:41	SYR 16:20	28%	7%	2.1%	no record
MQ 3894 Envoy	ORD 21:23	SYR 00:26	32%	8%	3.0%	no record
UA 2343 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	SYR 16:48	32%	13%	1.1%	81%worse than usual
UA 2481 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SYR 21:09	46%	23%	1.5%	68%worse than usual
UA 4541 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	SYR 10:48	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON