Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2326 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 49–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 2326 ORD 07:29 → TPA 11:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 353 ORD 20:29 → TPA 00:19 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2326 United Flight history →	ORD 07:29	TPA 11:22	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	ORD 11:19	TPA 15:12	21%	7%	1.0%	83%
AA 2920 American Flight history →	ORD 09:23	TPA 13:14	22%	6%	1.6%	79%
UA 2244 United	ORD 12:53	TPA 16:38	30%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 1057 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	TPA 18:24	36%	15%	2.6%	76%worse than usual
AA 1101 American Flight history →	ORD 14:48	TPA 18:49	43%	14%	3.6%	66%
UA 1393 United Flight history →	ORD 16:40	TPA 20:26	49%	20%	2.1%	62%worse than usual
AA 353 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	TPA 00:19	58%	17%	2.2%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON