Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4155 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–53%.

Safest bet that day AA 4155 ORD 08:29 → TUL 10:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2351 ORD 20:25 → TUL 22:17 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:29	TUL 10:36	13%	3%	1.6%	86%
UA 5795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	TUL 11:03	14%	5%	0.8%	80%
MQ 4098 Envoy	ORD 13:23	TUL 15:26	23%	7%	2.5%	no record
AA 4281 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	TUL 00:31	31%	8%	5.2%	75%
MQ 3646 Envoy	ORD 16:57	TUL 19:03	38%	14%	9.1%	no record
UA 2351 United	ORD 20:25	TUL 22:17	53%	23%	1.4%	no record
UA 4482 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	TUL 17:42	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON