tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2537 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 51%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2537 American Flight history → ORD 09:52 TUS 11:39 29% 6% 0.8% 79%
OO 5928 SkyWest ORD 14:17 TUS 16:00 51% 16% 4.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937 9h 05m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 48m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 8h 32m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:35 → TUS 11:03AA 2187 8h 03m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → ORD 14:42 → LAX 17:14DL 967 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 8h 17m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:50 → IAH 18:35UA 2062 1h 25m Houston IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 82% 67%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 8h 22m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 10:09 → TUS 12:30UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 8h 20m 96% 64%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:32AS 587 1h 47m Seattle SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648 9h 31m 94% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 50m Houston IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa 6h 37m 30% 24%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 57m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 6h 00m 38% 18%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:13 → DFW 18:46AA 2531 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:36 → TUS 19:52AA 1207 5h 39m 6% 3%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON