Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5726 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–60%.

Safest bet that day OO 5726 ORD 07:35 → TVC 09:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2071 ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5726 SkyWest	ORD 07:35	TVC 09:47	16%	6%	2.1%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	ORD 08:23	TVC 10:46	18%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:18	TVC 14:39	28%	13%	3.6%	67%
OO 5563 SkyWest	ORD 10:45	TVC 12:57	31%	11%	2.7%	no record
YX 3500 Republic	ORD 16:05	TVC 18:23	39%	16%	9.2%	no record
OO 5704 SkyWest	ORD 13:58	TVC 16:10	39%	16%	5.6%	no record
OO 6339 SkyWest	ORD 16:56	TVC 19:16	49%	24%	9.5%	no record
OO 5714 SkyWest	ORD 18:31	TVC 20:44	54%	24%	6.2%	no record
OO 4906 SkyWest	ORD 19:59	TVC 22:02	58%	24%	6.2%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	ORD 21:26	TVC 23:37	60%	21%	2.1%	63%worse than usual
UA 4169 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 09:00	TVC 11:37	13%	5%	1.3%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON